On the need to consider multiphasic sensitivity of marine or

Details of Research

TitleOn the need to consider multiphasic sensitivity of marine organisms to climate change: A case study of the Antarctic acorn barnacleAbstractAim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely employed to evaluate shifts in the geographic distributions of organisms in response to changing climatic conditions. Many marine invertebrates exhibit a biphasic life cycle: benthic adults and planktonic larvae, which inhabit different environments and may react dissimilarly to anticipated changes in climatological patterns. To date, SDMs applied to benthic species have only considered adult life-history stages. Here, we present the first study in which SDMs have been simultaneously developed for both the larval and adult stages of the same organism. Location: The Southern Ocean. Methods: Occurrence data for the study species, the Antarctic barnacle Bathylasma corolliforme, were sourced from: (1) benthic geo-referenced records from museum collections and online databases; and (2) observations of planktonic larvae identified with genetic and morphological methods. These records were used to construct two independent SDMs (adult-larvae) with Maxent 3.3.3k; their outputs were then projected to environmental conditions forecast for the year 2050 (IPCC scenario A1B). Results: The two different SDMs had high predictive capability and identified preferred environmental conditions of each life-history stage. For the projected 2050 climate change scenario, SDMs predicted that the extent of environmentally suitable areas of both life-history stages was reduced, with planktonic larvae experiencing greater reductions and latitudinal displacement of their suitable areas. Main conclusions: For multiphasic species, considering only a single life-history stage while studying distribution shifts may lead to erroneous conclusions for the species as a whole, regardless of the predictive capability of models employed. Ignoring the changes in suitable areas for larval stages can lead to underestimation of habitat reduction, distribution shifts, effects on population connectivity and potential for colonization of newly available habitats. ©2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.AcknowledgementsThe financial support for this study was provided by the New Zealand Government under the New Zealand International Polar Year-Census of Antarctic Marine Life Project (Phase 1: So001IPY; Phase 2: IPY2007-01); the University of Auckland under the Latitudinal Gradient Project; Antarctic Science Ltd through the Antarctic Science Bursary and the NSF by funding the attendance of R.G. to the VertNet Biodiversity Informatics Workshop. We thank the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research and the team at the Invertebrate collection for providing samples from adult specimens, and Dan Warren for insightful comments on the validation of SDMs and ENMtools. Lastly, we thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions, which had significantly improved the quality of the final manuscript.

Details

1st AuthorGallego, R.AuthorGallego, R.Dennis, T.Basher, Z.Lavery, S.Sewell, M.Year2017JournalJournal of BiogeographyDOI10.1111/jbi.13023URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/recor.....165b160d268c23cdbd9d0617cAuthor KeywordsBenthosClimate changeDistribution shiftsLarvaeMarineMaxentSpecies distribution models

Other

TypeArticleCitationGallego, R., Dennis, T., Basher, Z., Lavery, S. and Sewell, M. (2017). On the need to consider multiphasic sensitivity of marine organisms to climate change: A case study of the Antarctic acorn barnacle. Journal of Biogeography, 44(10): 2165-2175 IdentifierGallego2017Antarctica NZ supported?NoNZARI?No