Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the impor

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TitleCircumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatchAbstractEvidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adelie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adelie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system. Copyright 2017 by the Ecological Society of AmericaAcknowledgementsWe acknowledge the many fieldworkers over the decades that contributed to the collection of the data used in this study. Funding to H. J. Lynch and C. Youngflesh was provided by the National Science Foundation Grant OPP/GSS 1255058, to S. Jenouvrier, H. J. Lynch, C. Youngflesh, Y. Li, and R. Ji by the National Science Foundation Grant 1341474, to S. Jenouvrier, Y. Li, and R. Ji by NASA grant NNX14AH74G, to D. G. Ainley, G. Ballard, and K. M. Dugger by the National Science Foundation Grants OPP 9526865, 9814882, 0125608, 0944411 and 0440643, to P. OBÌ. Lyver by New Zealand's Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment Grants C09X0510 and C01X1001, and Ministry of Primary Industry grants with logistic support from Antarctica New Zealand. All data are from study areas where D. G. Ainley, G. Ballard, P. OBÌ. Lyver, and K. M. Dugger were principal investigators (Capes Royds, Bird, and Crozier) were collected following protocols approved under animal care and use permits overseen by Oregon State University, Landcare Research Animal Ethics Committee, and the National Science Foundation's Antarctic Conservation Act. Funding for the long- term study at Point Gologie was provided by the French Polar Institute IPEV (program No. 109 resp. H. Weimerskirch). Data from Admiralty Bay was made possible with support from the U.S. Antarctic Marine Living Resources program, the Lenfest Oceans Program at the Pew Charitable Trusts, and many prior grants from the National Science Foundation (e.g., grant #1016936 to W. Z. Trivelpiece and S. G. Trivelpiece). The Humble Island data are publicly available in the Palmer LTER data repository (http://pal.lternet.edu/data), and were obtained with support to W. R. Fraser from National Science Foundation Grants OPP 9011927, 9632763, 0217282, and ANT 0823101 and 1440435. The data were obtained following IACUC permits covering animal use approved by Old Dominion University, Montana State University, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Marine Biological Laboratory, Columbia University, and the Antarctic Conservation Act. Data from Bechervaise Island were collected following protocols approved by the Australian Antarctic Animal Ethics Committee and supported through the Australian Antarctic program through Australian Antarctic Science projects 2205, 2722 and 4087. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

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1st AuthorYoungflesh, C.AuthorYoungflesh, C.Jenouvrier, S.Li, Y.Ji, R.Ainley, D.Ballard, G.Barbraud, C.Delord, K.Dugger, K.Emmerson, L.Fraser, W.Hinke, J.Lyver, P.Olmastroni, S.Southwell, C.Trivelpiece, S.Trivelpiece, W.Lynch, H.Year2017JournalEcologyVolume98Number4Pages940-951DOI10.1002/ecy.1749URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/recor.....26da0587615ab39e6e13087d6KeywordsAnimaliaAnnaPygoscelis adeliaeSpheniscidae, rank5Author KeywordsAnna Karenina PrincipleAntarcticaasynchronyBayesian hierarchical modelclimate changephenologyPygoscelis adeliaequantile regression

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TypeArticleCitationYoungflesh, C., Jenouvrier, S., Li, Y., Ji, R., Ainley, D., Ballard, G., Barbraud, C., Delord, K., Dugger, K., Emmerson, L., Fraser, W., Hinke, J., Lyver, P., Olmastroni, S., Southwell, C., Trivelpiece, S., Trivelpiece, W. and Lynch, H. (2017). Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch. Ecology, 98(4): 940-951 IdentifierYoungflesh2017Relevancerank5Antarctica NZ supported?YesNZARI?Yes