A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone t

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TitleA probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levelsAbstractAnthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone‐depleting substances are expected to continue to affect concentrations of ozone in the stratosphere through the 21st century. While a range of estimates for when stratospheric ozone is expected to return to unperturbed levels is available in the literature, quantification of the spread in results is sparse. Here we present the first probabilistic study of latitudinally resolved years of return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. Results from our 180‐member ensemble, simulated with a newly developed simple climate model, suggest that the spread in return years of ozone is largest around 40°N/S and in the southern high latitudes and decreases with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The spread in projections of ozone is larger for higher greenhouse gas scenarios and is larger in the polar regions than in the midlatitudes, while the spread in ozone radiative forcing is smallest in the polar regions. Copyright 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

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1st AuthorSödergren A.H.AuthorSödergren A.H.Bodeker G.E.Kremser S.Meinhausen M.McDonald, A.J.Year2016JournalGeophysical Research LettersVolume43Number17Pages9289-9297DOI10.1002/2016GL069700URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/recor.....18c2e3b41b7eed6ac93714e67PublisherBlackwell Publishing LtdKeywordsAtmospheric radiationClimate modelsGas emissionsGreenhouse gasesOzone layer, Anthropogenic emissionsHigh LatitudesMAGICCOzone depleting substancesOzone radiative forcingPolar RegionsProjection uncertaintyStratospheric ozone, Ozone, anthropogenic sourceclimate modelinggreenhouse gasozoneozone depletionpolar regionradiative forcingstratospheretwenty first centuryuncertainty analysisAuthor KeywordsMAGICCozone projection uncertaintiessimple climate modelstratospheric ozoneProgrammeK053 - Investigation of Snow and Ice Properties at Land and Sea to Improve Remotely Sensed Mass Balance Observations

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CitationSödergren A.H., Bodeker G.E., Kremser S., Meinhausen M. and McDonald, A. (2016). A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(17): 9289-9297

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Programme

K053 - Investigation of Snow and Ice Properties at Land and Sea to Improve Remotely Sensed Mass Balance Observations