A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone t
Details of Research
TitleA probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levelsAbstractAnthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone‐depleting substances are expected to continue to affect concentrations of ozone in the stratosphere through the 21st century. While a range of estimates for when stratospheric ozone is expected to return to unperturbed levels is available in the literature, quantification of the spread in results is sparse. Here we present the first probabilistic study of latitudinally resolved years of return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. Results from our 180‐member ensemble, simulated with a newly developed simple climate model, suggest that the spread in return years of ozone is largest around 40°N/S and in the southern high latitudes and decreases with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The spread in projections of ozone is larger for higher greenhouse gas scenarios and is larger in the polar regions than in the midlatitudes, while the spread in ozone radiative forcing is smallest in the polar regions. Copyright 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
CitationSödergren A.H., Bodeker G.E., Kremser S., Meinhausen M. and McDonald, A. (2016). A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(17): 9289-9297
Antarctica NZ (29th Nov 2018). A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone t . In Website Antarctica NZ. Retrieved 6th Jul 2020 05:15, from https://adam.antarcticanz.govt.nz/nodes/view/64157